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Asian stocks inch down as investors fret over US inflation data

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Risks could be to the upside due to upward revisions to CPI in December and November after a reanalysis of seasonal factors

Sydney — Asian shares slid and the dollar rose on Monday as investors hunkered down for US inflation data that could jolt the outlook for interest rates globally, while accelerating or reversing the recent spike in bond yields.

It provided an extra excuse for caution, and MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan shed 0.7%, after losing 2.2% last week. The near-term direction for assets could well be determined by US data on consumer prices and retail sales this week, with much resting on whether inflation continued to slow in January.

Bruce Kasman, head of economic analysis at JPMorgan, expects core CPI to rise 0.5% and sales to jump 2.2%, underlining the message of resilience from the bumper January payrolls report. Markets have already sharply raised the profile for future tightening by the Federal Reserve, with rates now seen peaking up around 5.15% and cuts coming later and slower.Yields on 10-year Treasuries are at five-week highs of 3.75%, having jumped 21 basis points last week, while two-year yields hit 4.51%.

 

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