Analysis: U.S. stocks’ early-year rally is melting away as Treasury yields surge

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Cracks are widening in an early-year rally in U.S. stocks, as rising Treasury yields bolster the allure of bonds and skew equity valuations

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield, which moves inversely to bond prices, is up around 60 basis points from its January lows.

Strategists at BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, said on Tuesday that policy tightening from the Fed would likely be "bad news for risk assets." "Fixed income finally offers 'income' after yields surged globally," the firm's strategists wrote. "This has boosted the allure of bonds after investors were starved for yield for years."Markets on Tuesday afternoon were pricing in a 24% chance that the Fed raises rates by 50 basis points at its March 22 meeting, up from a 0% chance a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

That is a "death zone" that makes the "risk-reward very poor" for stocks, strategist Michael Wilson wrote.

 

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