Rational mobile pricing puts floor under telco earnings

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The smart money is on another price rise cycle starting again in July, with Goldman Sachs analyst Kane Hannan tipping Telstra to push through a $2 price rise.

. Despite years of headwinds – like the construction of the national broadband network taking the wind out of fixed-line earnings, and the heavy investment cost of the 5G rollout – there is finally a clear path to per-user revenue growth for Telstra and TPG Telecom.

He said post-paid subscribers were “softer than expected” in the half year to December, with 205,000 net additions. Still, he said the result was strong for mobiles given earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation grew 13.7 per cent on the prior matching period to $2.2 billion.

They predicted many consumers would ratchet down to cheaper prepaid mobile plans or switch to low-costTelstra and TPG will be able to offset some movement to mobile virtual network operators, however, considering they have their own low-cost brands Belong and Felix. TPG, for example, said it added 104,000 prepaid subscribers across its MVNO brands in 2022, while prepaid additions at its mainline brand Vodafone was 92,000.

“Importantly, TPG Telecom’s plans to ‘refresh’ its postpaid prices could be the catalyst that both Telstra andhave been waiting for, to ensure that the industry gets an adequate return on the capital spent rolling out 5G and erase the ‘chasing subscribers at all costs’ mentality that marred returns for all since 2017,” he added.

 

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