Earnings at the half point of the season: no sign yet of any collapse

At the halfway point for earnings, bulls are delighted earnings are coming in stronger than expected and expectations for the second half of the year remain high. Bears say bulls are in denial about the coming, much-anticipated recession. With 260 companies in the S & P 500 reporting, 79% are beating expectations, according to Earnings Scout. The average surprise was 6.1% above the estimate, slightly above the typical beat of roughly 6% seen prior to Covid.

06 Source: Refinitiv There are two reasons earnings estimates are not dropping for the second half: the economic outlook is uncertain but not dire, and the markets are waiting for the Fed to halt and reverse its rate-hike program. "There hasn't been enough of a reason for analysts to pre-emptively start cutting outlooks," Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, told me.

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