CBO issues surprise re: SNAP changes | Xi involved in crackdown on statistical fraud
The Congressional Budget Office estimates the debt-limit bill would reduce budget deficits by $1.5 trillion over the next 10 years, and reduce discretionary spending by a projected $1.3 trillion from 2024 to 2033. JPMorgan's annual Global China Summit is going ahead in Shanghai, and the bank's CEO Jamie Dimon told Bloomberg TV that they would be in China through the good times and the bad, reiterating a commitment to do business in the country even as political tensions with the U.S. rise."Over time there'll be less trade," Dimon said."It'll take years for this thing to take place, but it won't be a decoupling and the world will go on.
U.S. equities yesterday: The Dow ended down 50.56 points, 0.15%, at 33,042.78. The Nasdaq rose 41.74 points, 0.32%, at 13,017.43. The S&P 500 edged up 0.07 point, 0.00%, at 4,205.52. The Indian economy expanded 6.1% year-on-year in Q1 2023, higher than an upwardly revised 4.5% in Q4 2022 and well above market forecasts of 5%. The expansion was mainly boosted by private consumption, services exports and manufacturing amid easing input cost pressures. Also, services have emerged as a major driver, comprising more than half of GDP.
The Conference Board's closely watched index of consumer confidence fell to a six-month low this month, declining to 102.3 from a revised 103.7 reading in April. But economists had expected the index, which can be a signal for the direction of the US economy, to dip even lower than that. The survey was conducted prior to Biden and McCarthy announcing their debt-ceiling deal.
Upshot: As noted by Michael Fratantoni, the chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, while refinance demand is primarily driven by the level of interest rates, the volume of purchase continues to be restricted by the scarcity of homes on the market. He warns that the fiscal challenges ahead for the U.S. are potentially worse than those projected by the Congressional Budget Office . The CBO forecasted a U.S. budget deficit of 7.3% of GDP in fiscal year 2033, but Summers believes it could be as high as 11% under different assumptions. As a result, he predicts significant increases in revenue will be necessary, likely through higher taxes.
• Starting with deliveries that arrive Thursday, the U.S. is set to become a part of the world's leading oil benchmark, Brent crude, marking the first time a non-European grade has been incorporated into this global pricing standard. This significant move is a testament to the U.S.'s ascendancy as an energy superpower, largely driven by the shale revolution.
• Glencore Plc is getting closer to increasing its offer for Teck Resources Ltd. in a move aimed at ending weeks of limbo in the battle over the Canadian miner's future. A sweetened bid could be announced in the coming weeks, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the situation. Background. The EU restricted imports of Ukrainian wheat, corn, rapeseed and sunflower seeds until June 5 in Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia, but said that could be extended if oversupply situations in those countries still existed at that time.
Despite some bipartisan criticisms, both House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and President Joe Biden appear confident that the bill will pass in both chambers of Congress and become law before June 5. This date is significant as the Treasury Department estimates that the government will run out of money to pay its bills by then.— Changes to food aid in debt limit bill would cost money, not save: CBO.
"In CBO's estimation, if HR 3746 was enacted and appropriations that are subject to caps on discretionary funding for 2024 and 2025 were constrained by the limits specified in section 101 of the bill, the agency's projections of budget deficits would be reduced by about $1.5 trillion over the 2023–2033 period relative to its May 2023 baseline projections. Reductions in projected discretionary outlays would amount to $1.3 trillion over the 2024–2033 period.
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