August Has Been Lousy for Stocks. Why September Could Be Worse.

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According to data compiled by Dow Jones, September is easily the worst month in terms of average monthly performance for all three major U.S. indexes.

Stocks are mixed on Friday, and look prepared to log another down week in a difficult month. Unfortunately for bulls, September may not look much better.

There are in fact plenty of factors weighing on the market. As Barron’s has noted in recent weeks, stocks are contending with factors like higher bond yields—and worries about potential future interest-rate increases from Federal Reserve—along with the drag from China’s ongoing economic problems; even the U.S. economy’s own strength is cause for concern, as it reinforces the Fed’s case for more rate hikes.

Nonetheless, while Lee believes that the year-end outlook for the market, which strategists have been boosting lately, remains intact, others are concerned that the near-term selloff could continue. After all 2023’s gains appear to already price in what was a best-case scenario at the start of the year, meaning investors are in search of more rally fuel that has been hard to come by.

The competition isn’t even close with the other worst months—February, August, and May, which offer much less-discouraging performances; October, for all its fearsome reputation, tends to see all three indexes rise.

 

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