Nvidia Earnings or Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech? What’s More Important For Markets.

Two themes dominating markets in 2023—artificial intelligence and interest rates—threaten to collide this week with Nvidia earnings and the Jackson Hole economic symposium. With risks skewed to the downside, investors should look past short-term tech hype and fear the Federal Reserve.

This sentiment is understandable. Betting on more gains for a stock that has already increased 220% this year—buoying the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes—is a classic momentum trade. But the excitement might be setting traders up for disappointment.

U.S. Treasury yields have surged in recent weeks, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year note topping 4.35% to sit at its highest level since 2007. The sharp bond market moves puts Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday at Jackson Hole in focus. The Fed chief is likely to caution that the central bank will keep rates restrictive for some time and may take them higher if needed.

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