The stock market’s rally has met its match: the August doldrums. The S&P 500 is down about 4% this month after rallying 14% through the first seven months of the year.Central bank officials and economists gather each year in Jackson Hole, Wyo., to discuss monetary policy. At last year’s meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated in a speech his commitment to battling historically high inflation.
“I don’t expect to hear anything other than the current narrative,” Dave Sekera, chief U.S. market strategist at Morningstar, wrote. “That inflation is moderating yet still too high, that [the Fed is] concerned that tightening monetary policy might not be over yet, and that they’ll be data dependent moving forward.”
That leaves investors left with interpreting Powell’s tone. Last year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1,008 points after Powell delivered a more hawkish stance on inflation than expected. Barron’s worked with Dow Jones Market Data to analyze how the major stock indexes performed on the day of Jackson Hole and in the months afterward since the event began in 1978.
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