Morgan Stanley Wealth Management’s chief investment officer Lisa Shalett sees real rates and China’s weak economy as the biggest short-term risks,
“We believe the complex crosscurrents that have impacted stocks for most of 2023 are likely to persist, validating a cautious response to the “all-clear” signal. We are far from out of the woods, and we prefer an active approach to risk management. Consider preparing for rangebound US stock indexes, neutralizing extreme sector and factor overweights and balancing offense and defense while focusing on quality… The 10-year real rate rose above 2.
“The median S&P 500 stock’s return has sharply become more micro-driven this year, representing alpha opportunity for hedge funds and mutual funds … Reflecting the fertile stock picking environment, mutual fund and hedge fund favorites have outperformed in recent months.
“The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index was unexpectedly revised down to 69.5 in August from a nearly two-year high of 71.6 in the prior month. One-year inflation expectations edged up to 3.5 per cent year-over-year, a three-month high. Meantime, the average inflation forecast over the next five years was stuck at a still-high 3.0 per cent for the third straight month. U.S. gas costs have steadily climbed over the past few weeks and are now at the highest since last autumn.
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