Bet against America's love for junk food? Morgan Stanley sees tough times ahead for snack stocks like Hostess

J.M. Smucker 's plan to buy Twinkies -maker Hostess Brands is a risky move, if Morgan Stanley's latest research is correct. The firm revisited its August call that a new class of weight loss medications would hamper growth at some food and beverage companies . This time it backed up its thesis with additional demographic data about grocery shoppers from Numerator Insights as well as data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The results aren't rosy for Ding Dongs.

They also assumed at the time that these same consumers were more likely to buy indulgent snacks and packaged foods sold by brands like Smucker, Hostess and others. The new report backs this up. "Across our coverage, Numerator Insights data highlight that most center-store packaged food companies slightly over-index to consumers with obesity," Kaufman said.

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