Treasury bonds’ losses over the past three years have amounted to the worst bear market in the nearly 250-year history of the U.S., according to Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett, who included some charts on Treasury performance in his latest “flow show” note shared with MarketWatch late last week.
Over the past week, yields on long-duration Treasury securities like the 10-year note BX:TMUBMUSD10Y and 30-year bond BX:TMUBMUSD30Y have touched their highest levels in more than 16 years, according to FactSet data. Bond yields move inversely to prices. “It’s the greatest bond bear market of all time,” said Michael Hartnett, the BofA strategist who authored the note. He pointed out that losses on some 30-year bonds have topped 50%, as MarketWatch has reported.
However, investors worried about more bond-market pain to come may find solace in signs that the selloff is starting to look overdone. According to a BofA analysis, Treasury prices are looking overstretched relative to their 200-day moving average.
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