Struggling Dow transport stocks could be economic warning signal

NEW YORK - It's been a banner year for the major U.S. stock indexes, but one economically sensitive corner of the market sticks out as a sore spot.

The Dow transports are "a barometer for future economic activity," said Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services. "They may be indicating that while a recession isn't imminent, that there is probably a slowdown in the economy that's ahead here." Data this week showed the U.S. economy grew at a 1.3% annualized rate in the first quarter, down from the 3.4% fourth-quarter 2023 pace. A key test for the economy's strength and for markets comes with the June 7 release of the monthly U.S. jobs report.Among the Dow transports, the biggest year-to-date laggards are car rental company Avis Budget, off 37%, trucking firm J.B. Hunt Transport, down 21%, and American Airlines, off 17%.

"There is something to be said about the guts of the market not necessarily confirming all-time highs in the overall S&P 500," Miskin said. "So softness in some of the transports, I think do warrant some caution." Meanwhile, another group also considered to be an economic bellwether - semiconductors - has fared much better.

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