Thursday's U.S. CPI updated is expected to offer evidence of continued progress on the inflation front, boosting the Fed rate cut probability.BTC bulls should watch out for a potential"steepening" of the Treasury yield curve.The data due at 12:30 UTC is expected to show the cost of living in the world's largest economy rose 0.1% month over month in June after remaining flat in May, leading to a 3.1% rise year over year, according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones.
Increased prospects of rate cuts will likely bode well for risk assets, including bitcoin, helping the leading cryptocurrency extend its price recovery from the July 5 lows of around $53,500."CPI data will be closely watched, with markets expected to react significantly to this release.
According to the CME's FedWatch tool, since Friday's weak payrolls report, traders have priced about a 70% chance of a Fed rate cut in September and see a rising probability of another cut in December.The U.S. Treasury yield curve's response to the expected soft CPI release might influence the broader market sentiment, including bitcoin.
According to the CAIA Association, periods of bull steepening, characterizing a fast normalization of an inverted yield curve, have historically occurred during periods of economic contraction and coincided with risk aversion.