The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week, but there has been no material shift in the labour market and the data is typically noisy in July because of summer breaks and temporary factory closures.
But the shutdown schedules are different for every manufacturer, which can throw off the model that the government uses to smooth out the data for seasonal fluctuations. Claims rose in July last year through the first half of August, before fully reversing course by early September. The Fed’s “Beige Book” report on Wednesday showed “employment rose at a slight pace” in early July, but noted a decline in manufacturing employment.
The claims data covered the period during which the government surveyed business establishments for the nonfarm payrolls portion of July’s employment report. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 206,000 jobs in June.
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