Tech Earnings: Are Giants Overinvesting in Capex? Elon Musk Sums It Up Perfectly

This is a normal chart of the quarterly progression and explains the “fish-hook” effect Ed Yardeni talks about frequently, where the S&P 500 EPS estimate starts lower from negative revisions from the last few weeks in the previous quarter , and the first two weeks of the new quarter , and then moves higher as the bulk of the S&P 500 reports the last quarter.

The rub is that heavier investments in capex, are expected to lead to higher revenue in future quarters unless you get diminishing returns from all the major tech companies overinvesting. “They were building a Ferrari for every launch, when it was possible that a Honda Accord may do the trick.”

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