Goldman sees one of its portfolios for clients tripling the return of the market next year

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The bank is recommending clients stocks with high Sharpe ratios, a measure of a stock's performance relative to its volatility.

Stocks in its 50-name high Sharpe ratio basket are forecast by the firm's analysts to generate a median 17% return over the next 12 months, about three times the firm's S&P 500 forecast of 6%.

"Our high Sharpe Ratio basket typically has a value tilt and often contains some constituents that have experienced substantial price declines and have high upside to consensus price targets," David Kostin, Goldman's chief U.S. equity strategist, said in a note on Friday. Goldman uses consensus 12-month price targets and options six-month implied volatility to measure Sharpe ratios. The portfolio has a track record of beating the market, Goldman said. It has outpaced the S&P 500's return by 5.7 percentage points on average during the last 20 years, and it outperformed the market by 4 percentage points this year, returning 32%.

The S&P 500 is up more than 28% this year, about 1 percentage point away from 2013′s gain of 29.6%. The easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China and receding recession fears have led to a rush into equities at the year-end.

 

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