That’s the estimate of Bernstein Research analyst Toni Sacconaghi, who arrived at the figure through a series of calculations based on the tech giant’s fourth-quarter report and commentary from management. The analyst maintains a “market perform,” or neutral, rating on Apple stock.
In a note to clients, Sacconaghi said the low adoption of Apple TV+, even among those who can get it for free, could have three plausible explanations. Scenario 1: Apple hasn’t succeeded in its promotion of the service, as it juggles it with marketing a range of other new services and devices. Scenario 2: Apple may be “conservatively estimating its ‘take rate’ or deliberately scaling its promotions of TV+ slowly to mitigate the negative accounting impact of its early ramp,” the analyst wrote.
For context, Disney reported drawing 10 million sign-ups for Disney+ on its first day of U.S. availability last November. Netflix has 167 million global subscribers, with a bit more than one-third of those in the U.S. Apple TV+ has no library of licensed fare, unlike fellow new rivals to longtime streaming leaders Netflix and Amazon being launched by Disney, NBCUniversal and WarnerMedia. New shows like
The Morning Show was pretty good
That 10% is just a guess with no hard numbers to back it up. It’s wrong. I’d bet it is very wrong.
There’s just not much on there of interest
Considering how fantastic their initial lineup is, the other promising shows in the pipeline and the fact that they renewed 99% of their shows for a second season, I’m sure they’ll be just fine.