A Wall Street analyst lays out a bleak worst-case scenario where coronavirus disrupts a 32% chunk of Apple's business (AAPL) | Markets Insider

On Tuesday, Needham analyst Laura Martin lowered her earnings expectations for the technology giant following the company'sBut the coronavirus, called COVID-19, could weigh on Apple revenues for even longer, according to Martin.

If coronavirus-related disruptions to Apple's supply and demand continue past June, new product launches in September and its Christmas selling season would come under greater threat, Martin wrote. Over the last three years, the autumn launches and holiday season sales have made up about 32% of Apple's annual revenue, according to the note.

If Apple's December quarter is disrupted, both the full years 2020 and 2021 would be negatively impacted because of the company's fiscal calendar, Martin wrote.So far, Martin has lowered only unit sales and revenue estimates for the quarters ending in March and June, which will be the most hit by the coronavirus epidemic.

But,"this assumption may prove to be too optimistic," she wrote. Martin maintained a"buy" rating and $350 price target on shares of Apple.

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There are a lot of “what if” and black swan scenarios in that prediction.

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