How to keep your head when other investors are losing theirs

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The mortality rate is significantly higher in 70+ year olds, and children don't seem to be severely affected.

To confuse things further, epidemiologists have different conclusions about the virus, ranging from 'a more severe version of influenza that will fade in the summer' to 'a mutation that could infect 70 per cent of the world'. One thing that most agree on is that that China's mortality rate was higher due to the high percentage of smokers, as Covid-19 is a respiratory system infection. If you were waiting for a strong reason to quit smoking, this is about as good as it gets.

As my column last month highlighted, investors need to make decisions when faced with uncertainty about the future outcome. Making good decisions during a times of panic becomes even more critical. How the virus outbreak will be resolved is still unclear. Some people believe that this will not be resolved for at least 18 months and are selling equities into the downturn. Others are forced to sell by banks, as they've been caught leveraged long at the peak, and are suffering margin calls.

Any re-acceleration of infected growth in countries like China needs to be monitored. This is not our base case, but if there's any hint of this happening, the bottom will be delayed further. Internal market divergences at the re-test. Just looking at the index price is not enough. It needs to be assessed together with volatility, volume, and number of stocks that are not making new lows.

 

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