Rosenberg: This is when the stock market rally is likely to unravel – and it’s not going to be pretty
What the market is telling us now, in a rotation away from the megacap “stay at home” growth stocks toward reopening/recovery value stocks, is that a vaccine is close, that we are then going to be in for a huge V-shaped recovery,. Make no mistake, this is what is priced in right here and right now and, in terms of timing, I sense Mr. Market is thinking by the fall, everything is going to return to normal.
That’s not my view, and while I am not an infectious-disease expert, I do know a thing or two about assessing probabilities. A vaccine has never been developed, ever, in the time frame the stock market has priced in. From the people I talk to, we are not looking at anything being successfully tested and developed before early spring or summer of 2021.