The forecast is also much grimmer for private consumption at -11.8 per cent, compared to -5.2 per cent earlier.But a smaller contraction is predicted for wholesale and retail trade, while better growth is expected for finance and insurance, as well as manufacturing. Non-oil domestic exports are also now forecast to grow 4.5 per cent, an improvement from the earlier forecast of zero growth.
Inflation expectations have moderated since the June survey, to -0.4 per cent for headline inflation and -0.3 per cent for core inflation, from -0.5 per cent for both previously. Unemployment is now forecast to be 3.5 per cent at the end of the year, improving marginally from the previous 3.6 per cent forecast.
A tightening in global financial conditions remained the top perceived downside risk to growth, followed by an escalation in the Covid-19 pandemic and worsened tensions between the US and China. As for upside risks, fewer respondents cited the possibility of global financial conditions easing, while more saw a chance for growth to be aided by fiscal stimulus and Covid-19 containment.For daily updates on weekdays and specially selected content for the weekend. Subscribe to