Why Wall Street is doing great while Main Street is still closed

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OPINION: Why is Wall Street doing great while we're in a recession? Major publicly-traded companies haven't borne the brunt of the pandemic’s economic fallout. But they could find themselves in the middle of a populist backlash, Kenneth Rogoff writes.

One factor has become increasingly clear: The crisis has disproportionately affected small businesses and low-income service workers. They are essential for the real economy, but not so much for equity markets.Alternative explanations For example, because stock markets SPX, +0.87% DJIA, +0.56% GDOW, +0.

But, again, it is not clear that markets are correct in anticipating a never-ending continuation of low interest rates. After all, the long-term adverse supply effects, particularly from deglobalization, may linger long after global demand has recovered. At some point, markets will be disabused of the notion that taxpayers will cover everything indefinitely. Central banks are ultimately constrained in the amount of risk they are allowed to assume, and the belief that they still have an appetite for taking on more could be challenged if a severe second wave arrives this winter.

These smaller players simply do not have the capital needed to survive a shock of this duration and magnitude. And government programs that have helped keep them afloat for a while are beginning to lapse, raising the risk of a snowball effect in the event of a second wave.

 

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