For help on how to navigate these troubled waters, it pays to check in with a bond manager who knows how to play the game. Consider Ken Orchard, the portfolio manager of the T. Rowe Price Global Multi-Sector Bond Fund PRSNX, -0.09%.
No such luck, says Orchard. He says inflation will stay higher for longer. He is worth listening to because of his fund’s record. It beats its world-bond-fund category by 4.6 percentage points annualized over the past three years, according to Morningstar. The fund beats its Morningstar global-bond index by a similar amount.
Third, consider productivity gains inside companies. They’re supposed to help contain price increases. This seems obvious, because companies are increasing capital spending by a lot. More spending on labor-saving technology and equipment helps companies produce more per worker. These productivity gains ease pressures on companies to pass cost increases to customers. But this will take a while to play out, says Orchard.
Unlike the Fed in the U.S., many central banks in places such as Chile, Mexico and in central and Eastern Europe have already been hiking interest rates aggressively. This has sparked a panic among fixed-income investors and an exodus from bonds. The reason is central bank rate hikes typically hurt bonds. Bond prices have to fall so that bond yields keep up with rising rates imposed by central banks.
If you wait for the issues to go away, the discounts will have vanished. “You have to take risks as an investor,” he says.