Italian Bond Market Heats Up With Fears Over ECB Tightening and Political Fragmentation

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Market watchers are wary over the economic and political future of Europe’s third-largest economy.

"In 2020-21, the Bank of Italy bought over 100% of net supply of Italian central government debt. In 2022, we estimate that the central bank will buy up to 60% of net issuance. In 2023, this source of demand will be gone," Ducrozet said, highlighting the changing landscape for monetary policy.Political fragmentation

Indeed, political fragmentation is so acute right now that lawmakers recently took eight attempts to elect a new president. After nearly a week of inconclusive voting, lawmakers decided to ask Sergio Mattarella to continue as the country's president — despite him wanting to leave the job. There's now key questions on whether Draghi, a former ECB president, will manage to keep implementing much-needed reforms before the end of his mandate. Political parties will soon start to lay the ground for their election campaigns and, more broadly, an election will undoubtedly bring uncertainty on what sort of coalition will emerge after the vote.

 

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