Australia’s coal export boom forecast to end abruptly amid big drop in demand from China

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Study finds Chinese consumption will fall within two to three years as Australian coalmining communities warned to reduce dependence on industry

Coal being stockpiled in Newcastle, NSW. A new study’s lead author says that while the major parties say Australia’s coal exports have decades to run, the future is likely to be much less promising.Coal being stockpiled in Newcastle, NSW. A new study’s lead author says that while the major parties say Australia’s coal exports have decades to run, the future is likely to be much less promising.

“China reducing imports of thermal coal and coking coal by roughly a quarter over the next five years, that’s a major drop and not something that is far off into the future.” China banned imports of coal and some other commodities from Australia in 2020 as ties between Beijing and Canberra frayed. Even without access to the Chinese market, lower orders from China would dent global demand – hurting Australian exporters – as the nation is by far the world’s biggest consumer of the fuel.

While not necessarily providing good financial returns in their own right, such projects also helped to cut “dependency on volatile and politically unfriendly” sources of energy, Gosens said.

 

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