Unemployment Due to Voluntary Quits Falls in May Amid Strong Job Growth

The economy added 390,000 jobs in May, while the unemployment remained unchanged at 3.6 percent for the third consecutive month. The May report showed clear evidence that the labor market is normalizing with wage growth continuing to slow.

The annualized rate of wage growth comparing the last three months with the prior three months was 4.3 percent, down from the 5.2 percent year-over-year increase. This is only moderately higher than the peak 3.6 percent year-over-year rate hit in February 2019. This means that if we are concerned about underlying inflation rather than supply shocks, most of the Fed’s work has been done.The share of unemployment due to voluntary quits edged down to 12.8 percent.

Manufacturing added 18,000 jobs in May, leaving its employment just 17,000 below the pre-pandemic level. Air transportation and trucking added 5,700 jobs and 13,300 jobs, respectively, in May, leaving employment in the sectors 6.3 percent and 4.3 percent above the pre-pandemic level.Nursing homes added 1,300 jobs in May, while childcare centers added 1,500 jobs. Employment in both sectors is still down more than 10 percent from pre-pandemic levels.

At the same time, most of the data look very similar to the strong pre-pandemic period. Most measures of employment and labor force participation rates are near pre-pandemic peaks and above 2019 averages. While payroll employment is still below the pre-pandemic level, it is important to remember that if we add in self-employment, current levels are considerably higher.

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