Bear market offers exceptional, short-lived ralliesFor tools, data, and content to help you make better investing decisions, tryThe US stock market provided the worst returns since 1970 for the first half of a year. Let's consider that statement. It includes the Dotcom crash in 2000, the subprime crash in 2008, and the fastest exit from a bull to a bear market in 2020 amid the worst global health crisis in a century.
Timing is perhaps the most challenging and elusive component of investing. Before I go on, I'll say it right here: I do NOT know what will happen. I can't tell the future. I am not in the business of fortune-telling. But, don't worry, this is not a cop-out. I will take a stand and explain myself. I'll provide my take on the current trajectory based on my interpretation of the current supply and demand rate and discuss catalysts.
Why would small caps fall the most from a fundamental perspective? The themes driving the bear market are the fastest tightening monetary policy in decades, to match the highest inflation in over forty years, threatening to slow down growth, if not throw the economy into an outright recession. Therefore, smaller companies don't have the resources available to large corporations with which to navigate less available funds and higher borrowing costs.
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GOLD $XAUUSD $XAU $GLD has already started the cascading breakdown and failed the first backtest.
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