Here's the sector most at risk from Russia permanently shutting off gas to Germany — and it's taking a tumble

Shares of chemicals companies including BASF XE:BAS, Lanxess XE:LXS and Covestro XE:1COV have each tumbled over the past month, in part on concern that Russia won’t resume gas flows via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline at the end of the scheduled maintenance period on July 21.

The Jefferies analysts note that gas use is prioritized, first for household, heating, and power. Chemicals is in the second tier, and other materials and minerals is in the third tier allocation. Analysts at UBS on Thursday downgraded Arkema AKE , BASF, Clariant CLN and Givaudan GIVN to sell from neutral and downgraded Evonik EVK and Wacker WCH to neutral from buy.

UBS said given the risks associated with energy rationing and supply cuts, as well as swiftly waning consumer confidence, it was adopting a recession scenario for earnings next year, and anticipating cracks in the order book to show up as early as the third quarter.

It is definitely without questions that the gas will flow back shortly after the war even they shut it down now.

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