Retailer round-up, UK economy woes and Europe’s power problems: World market themes for the week ahead

U.S. retailers’ earnings will give a glimpse into how consumers are dealing with sky-high inflation, and a raft of data offer a check-up on the health of the UK economy.

Retailers’ outlook for consumer behavior will be key for investors looking to assess the pace of inflation. U.S. consumer prices were unchanged last month, the largest month-on-month deceleration of price increases since 1973. The BoE predicts a long and deep recession, evidence of which may come from July retail sales data out on Aug. 19. Sales slumped 5.8% year-on-year in June, while consumer confidence is languishing at its lowest since 1974.

Investors are certain RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr is not yet ready to compromise on inflation and will raise rates by another 50 basis points on Wednesday, notwithstanding the slight easing of inflation expectations and cooling property prices. Norway’s central bank meanwhile is expected to hike rates when it meets on Thursday. It raised rates by 50 bps in June and some economists expect big hikes in August and September.Martin Meissner/The Associated Press

As a result, German baseload 2023 contract, Europe’s benchmark, has hit record highs, almost doubling since mid-June.A person stands on a balcony next to new residential units under construction on August 4 in Los Angeles.The cooling U.S. housing market gets a couple of gut checks in the coming week. July data on housing starts is due on Tuesday, after new U.S. home-building activity fell to a nine-month low in June.

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