, a non-profit group that advises on what careers have the most positive social impact.
says that about 120 billion Homo sapiens have so far been born. MacAskill says that if we assume that our population continues at its current size and we last as long as typical mammals, that would mean “there would be 80 trillion people yet to come; future people would outnumber us 10,000 to one”. To deal with the uncertainty that is inherent in longterm thinking, MacAskill believes we can make greater use of a method of probability assessment called “expected value theory”. It’s a means of prioritising or assigning values to outcomes in situations with multiple possibilities. Professional gamblers use it but MacAskill says its application could help guide us through the complex contingencies ahead.
The critical point in this analogy is not so much the Nazis, who represent humanity’s potential for doing ill, but AGI. Put simply, AGI is the technological state in which an intelligent machine can learn and enact any intellectual task that a human being can do. From that point, the potential to control ideas and social development is almost limitless, which brings into focus the possibility of an unending dystopia.
In making his case for the journey ahead, MacAskill dismisses some of the ideas that are held dear by many who are concerned about the future, particularly those looking at things from an environmental perspective. It’s not uncommon in green circles to hear arguments against economic growth, against consumption and, indeed, even against bringing further children into the world.
He believes both technological development and economic growth are needed to avoid threats of climate crisis, bioterrorism and much else besides. The other point he makes is that stopping growth would in any case be pointless unless all 193 countries signed up to it. At the core of the book is the question of human values. These are obviously not set in stone, because we need only look at history to see how they have radically changed over time. A key example that MacAskill returns to is slavery and its abolition. At various periods and across most cultures slavery has existed and been deemed natural, or at least acceptable.