Potential OPEC+ production cuts mooted this week by Saudi Arabia may not be imminent and are likely to coincide with the return of Iran to oil markets should it clinch a nuclear deal with the West, nine OPEC sources told Reuters on Tuesday.
“OPEC+ should prepare the ground for Iranian oil to come out after lifting sanctions,” one source said. Should sanctions be lifted, Iran would need around a year and a half to reach its full capacity of 4 million barrels per day of crude production versus the current 2.6 million bpd.
Iran is exempt from the existing OPEC+ deal to limit oil supply, and is likely to remain exempt to boost output initially. OPEC+ agreed to increase output by 648,000 bpd in each of July and August as it fully unwinds nearly 10 million bpd of cuts implemented in May 2020 to counter the COVID-19 pandemic.
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