“We’re forecasting a recession for next year,” Mike Fratantoni, senior vice president and chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, said Sunday during the industry group’s annual conference in Nashville, Tenn.
In a statement, Fratantoni said the MBA’s forecast calls for a recession in the first half of 2023, and predicts the unemployment rate will rise from 3.5% to 5.5% by the end of next year.He expects companies to no longer be scrambling to fill job openings, and that hiring will eventually cool off. That’s in stark contrast to the latest unemployment rate in September, which was 3.5%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
With a recession on the horizon, expect mortgage rates to come down to close to 5.4% at the end of next year, he said, versus the 7%-plus rates that the market is seeing today.
Zero percent chance that interest rates are going down. Mortgage rates will be over 10% by end of 1q23. 100% guaranteed.
We are already in a recession
Recession is already here…