Canada's government tosses fiscal hot potato to central bank, analysts say

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Canada's plan to spend an extra C$6.1 billion ($4.5 billion) in the next five months may undermine the central bank's effort to curb inflation, despite Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland's vow not to make the job of monetary policy harder, analysts said.

"I would have rather seen them totally toeing the line on spending, if not shrink it somewhat, so that maybe we would have less by way of cumulative rate hikes going forward," said Derek Holt, vice president of capital markets economics at Scotiabank.Money markets are now leaning toward the BoC raising its policy rate by half a percentage point on Dec. 7, a move that would come on top of the 350 basis points worth of tightening it has already undertaken since March.

Indeed, economists said the government's baseline expectations for 0.7% growth next year were optimistic, and the reality was likely to be closer to the 0.9% contraction forecast in its downside scenario. Scotiabank estimates the combined stimulus measures by the provinces over the coming quarters will top C$16 billion, while the federal government has announced C$22.9 billion in new spending for this year and next since its April budget.has eased to 6.9% from a recent peak of 8.1%, it is still well above the BoC's 2% target, and underlying pressures are proving sticky.

 

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