Disney DIS seized the mantle three months ago as its potent content troika of Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+ reached 221 million customers, edging Netflix’s 220 million subscribers. Analysts expect Disney to report more than 10 million net new subscribers in the third quarter, which would greatly outdistance Netflix’s NFLXaddition of 2.4 million subscribers in the period.
When the Disney+ ad tier debuts in the U.S. and overseas in 2023, UBS analyst John Hodulik expects Disney+’s ad-tier service to add $1 billion in incremental revenues in its first 12 months. Macquarie Research analyst Tim Nollen models slightly less, an $800 million sales opportunity next year if all markets were to launch, but also foresees Disney’s direct-to-consumer revenue outpacing linear networks by the fourth quarter.
“Disney already knows its audience and the advertising industry incredibly well,” Ashwin Navin, CEO of Samba TV, told MarketWatch. “The significant opportunity to align with its top-tier content will accelerate new and untapped dollars flowing into Disney’s ad-supported streaming service.” What to expect Earnings: Analysts surveyed by FactSet on average expect Disney to report adjusted fourth-quarter earnings of 55 cents a share, up from 9 cents a share a year ago.
Stock movement: Disney shares have bounced between post-earnings gains and losses in recent years, rising after six of the past 12 reports. Read more: Netflix’s CEO says, ‘Thank God we’re done with shrinking quarters,’ as first growth of 2022 sends stock soaring