The real estate firm’s 2023 Market Survey Forecast, which is being released Tuesday, predicts aggregate prices will drop by one per cent to $765,171 by the fourth quarter of 2023, a decline that could be worse given the effects of rising interest rates, declining affordability and a housing supply shortage. The median price of a single-family detached property will also decrease by two per cent to $781,256 while the median condominium price is projected to rise by one per cent to $568,933.
“Canada is struggling with an acute, long-term housing supply shortage,” the report said. “Organic demand is supported by the current lifecycle of our large millennial demographic and a record number of new immigrants who need to be housed. Smaller household sizes mean more housing units are needed per capita than in the past. Pent-up demand is growing from buyers who have the ability to transact but have chosen not to in these turbulent times.
This contrasts with a traditional recessionary environment, in which job losses snowball into missed mortgage payments and foreclosures, leading the market to be flooded with new listings. However, in Canada’s post-pandemic period, most people have kept their jobs. Results are expected to vary across the country. For example, Calgary, Edmonton and Halifax are expected to record modest price gains in 2023 due to their relative affordability.
In which they should wait until 2024
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