Small Business Optimism Falls to Six-Month Low as Holiday Shopping Disappoints

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Small business owners expect sales conditions and the overall economy to deteriorate in the coming year.

A key measure of optimism of small business owners fell in December, the National Federation of Independent Business said Tuesday. The trade group’s index of small business optimism fell to 89.8 from 91.9 in November, deeply below the historical average of 98 and the worst level since June.“Overall, small business owners are not optimistic about 2023 as sales and business conditions are expected to deteriorate,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg.

Sales trends are deteriorating. A net negative eight percent of owners reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, down a point from November. The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes fell two points to a net negative 10 percent. The percent reporting inventory increases fell from a net five percent to zero, meaning those building inventory were matched by those cutting inventory.

 

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