Quarterly price data is set to be released this morning in both New Zealand and Australia. Here are some expectations from TD Securities:will rise 1.3 per cent quarter-over-quarter. It will be released at 8.45am AEDT.
“In annual terms we are in line with consensus for headline to increase 7.1 per cent, coming in well below the RBNZ’s November 7.5 per cent forecast. Based on our forecasts it appears NZ inflation peaked in Q2 at 7.3 per cent. “While housing, food and recreation are the largest contributors to CPI, the sharp drop in petrol prices in Q4 serves as the only significant offset. A number at or below our forecasts should strongly support the RBNZ hiking 50bps at next month’s meeting.”“TD and the market’s forecast of annual headline stands at 7.5 per cent and 7.6 per cent respectively, some distance from the 8 per cent RBA forecast.
“Our forecast pegs annual trimmed to hit the highest levels since 1990 at 6.6 per cent vs. the RBA and consensus at 6.5 per cent, above the prior 6.1 per cent y/y print. We expect annual trimmed between 6.1 per cent and 6.5 per cent to lock in a 25bps hike next month.”
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