Excerpted from this week's edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 747, a look at two currently positive macro market signals. When they turn it will be time for change. Meanwhile, the Q4-Q1 broad rally continues:Last week we noted two market leadership signals, one positive and one potentially negative .
This week let's look at a signal showing that the stresses of 2022 continue to ease in 2023. Very clearly high yield bond spreads are not indicating a rush to safety or liquidity crisis of any kind yet. In other words, from this vantage point the Q4-Q1 rally theme lives on. The 2020 spike in the spread logically came with a deflation scare and the 2022 bear market began in conjunction with a grind higher in the spread.
Meanwhile, speaking of the yield curve, let's leave the segment with the long-term view shown last week. The curve is inverting ever deeper and it is not usually the inversion phase when the fun* begins; it is when the next steepener begins that we will see upheaval in all the pre-programmed thinking by today's market players; man, woman, machine, Ma, Pa & casino patron alike.
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