Citi analysts are optimistic about the lithium market after Tesla executives gave what they called a bullish forecast at its latest investor day . Tesla said it could sell 20 million battery electric vehicles by 2030 . That could imply as much as 23% growth in demand for lithium, said analyst P.J. Juvekar in a note Wednesday that highlighted the team's top picks to play the potential boom in lithium demand.
By applying 3.5x EBITDA in 2027E, we derive a valuation of ~$9. Our multiple is more conservative than lithium mining/refining companies & recyclers as LICY is a new company and growth depends on execution of capital projects. Our DCF analysis returns a target price of ~$5 assuming a terminal growth rate of 4.0% and a WACC of ~10.2%." Livent "Our $28 target price is based on a target EV/EBITDA of ~9.5x applied to our FY24 estimate.