When analysts were asked to provide input on the LTH-SOPR, as well as its implications, for this article, they offered mixed replies.BitBull Capital“When SOPR is above 1, it means coins that moved in that period were profitable,” he noted. “An SOPR less than 1 means people in loss were forced to sell.”
“Since a return to 1 and above means long term holders are finally beginning to be in the green, it may also mark a shift in sentiment where those entities start reducing their selling pressure and even buying more,” said Dipasquale. “We wouldn’t say the indicator forecasts a rally, however. It reveals a data point that usually coincides with a shift in sentiment.”, described the assessment provided by Godbole as “accurate” via emailed comments, but emphasized that “LTH-SOPR is not what is driving BTC and the crypto market in general up. Likewise, on the downside, the LTH-SOPR is an indicator of a cause, rather than the cause itself.
“There are four factors causing LTH-SOPR to increase and BTC and crypto prices to increase: peak interest rates , pending BTC halving, the FTX ‘forced’ capitulation and crypto bottom in mid-November, and, more important than any of those, the breakdown in fiat equities and BTC correlation,” he stated.
“Yes those are general reasons why the market has been trending up ward. And whenever market trends up, the SOPR inevitably goes above 1 at some point.”