In a short-term and cyclical sense, gold miners and junior gold stocks follow the Gold price. However, beyond the short-term, gold miners follow the"real" price of Gold because it is a better indicator of long-term gold miner profitability than the nominal Gold price.
Gold stocks and junior gold stocks have underperformed the Gold price for over a decade because the real price of Gold has not kept pace with the Gold price. Also, Gold was in a secular bear market from 2011 to 2022.Gold has not risen too much in real terms since 2016, nor has it broken out to a new all-time high and held it. Not yet.
However, when Gold is in a secular bull market, it also rises in real terms, which drives gold stocks much higher. In that scenario, the gold stocks indices will break to new all-time highs, and Barron's Gold Mining Index would begin a move similar to the mid-1960s. See the blue arrows.
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