Stocks would fall right back into a bear market if they adopted economic view of bond market, JPMorgan says

It seems fitting that the S&P 500 SPX ended its 248 trading-day stint in a bear market on the same day that a report showed initial jobless claims at its highest level in nearly two years.

Up is down, down is up, same as it ever was on Wall Street. Main Street has finally capitulated, judging by the American Association of Individual Investors survey that found above-average optimism for the first time since February. So … look out below? If equity markets were to price in a rise in inflation volatility to levels that the bond markets do, it would imply a 20% downside from current levels, the JPMorgan strategists say.

The market U.S. stock futures ES00 NQ00 drifted lower. The dollar DXY edged up, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury TMUBMUSD10Y was 3.72%. DocuSign DOCU reported results well ahead of Wall Street estimates as its current quarter sales outlook also topped estimates.Turkey appointed a former First Republic executive to lead its central bank, as the lira continues to tumble against the U.S. dollar.

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