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CLYDE RUSSELL: Energy agency raises alarm over China’s rise as an oil-refining driver

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The main risk is increasing reliance on its fuel exports, which are not determined by market imperatives

Emissions rise from smokestacks and cooling towers in China. Photographer: QILAI SHEN/BLOOMBERG

China is also expected to add the most amount of crude refining capacity from 2022 to 2028, and to hold the most spare capacity, says the IEA, which acts as an energy adviser to developed nations. The IEA says China had about 3-million barrels per day of unused refining capacity at the beginning of 2023. It expects unused capacity will rise to 3.2-million bpd by 2028 as additional refining units are added at a faster pace than throughput volumes.

As China’s diesel shipments recovered, the crack started falling and a rapid acceleration in exports in the second half of 2022 and in the first quarter of 2023 caused the profit per barrel to slide to a 28-month low of $10.08 in late April.

 

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