, World Bank and Ukrainian government together put the cost at $411bn over the next decade, a figure reached before the destruction of the Kakhovka dam. The International Finance Corporation, an arm of the World Bank, thinks two-thirds of the money will need to come from public sources because of the difficulty of enticing private money. This would amount to an annual cost of 0.1% of the West’sover the same period.
The question now is whether such private money will actually arrive. Under war conditions, investors usually need some kind of guarantee from a public body to take the leap. One idea under consideration in London was for donors not only to provide war insurance or guarantees, but to help prop up a reinsurance market.
If such guarantees can be arranged, the final step will be to take advantage of opportunities, which ought to be plentiful given the amount of aid pouring into Ukraine and the country’s economic potential. Some observers even think private investment could surpass the $411bn estimated to be required for Ukraine’s long-term reconstruction. Yet that is only if everything goes to plan.