The coming slowdown – and possible recession – could look very different for ASX investors, who will need to navigate the bizarre combination of sales in some parts of the markets plunging while profit margins hold up.
“Worryingly, we note that previous recession periods saw the consumer discretionary and bank sector post earnings growth reversals of more than 10 per cent year-on-year.”The ASX 200 is still within 5 per cent of its all-time high and 11 per cent above where it bottomed last September, which UBS suggests shows “clear downside risks to prices if recession fears materialise”.
The fascinating question is how local investors should position for this new environment. Two things make the answer difficult.First, the extent to which earnings beyond the more obvious consumer-exposed industries fall will be complicated by Schellbach’s expectation that profit margins should hold up reasonably well becauseSecond, investors are actually defensively positioned.
The UBS analysis suggests the Australian market is caught between preparing for a slowdown and hoping it doesn’t come .