But forward-looking indicators continue to point to an imminent downturn.Recession calls have grown louder and more common ever sinceBut in the 14-plus months that have passed since then, the economy has remained generally intact. Unemployment is still historically low at 3.7% as monthly job reports continue to post healthy gains, making forecasters look silly. US GDP has also been positive for three consecutive quarters.
Yet, signs indeed remain that a recession may happen soon, and bears are warning investors not to get caught up in some of the backward-looking data. "Many have cited recent GDP reports and other coincident indicators that remain relatively robust as a bullish signal; however, these types of indicators tend to be more coincident in nature and do not offer insights on the forward path of economic activity," said Jason Pride, head of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, in a client note on Monday.
He added:"Investors who over-rely on coincident data may be in for a rude awakening as restrictive rates continue to work their way through the economy." Below, we've compiled some of the forward-looking indicators that show a recession is brewing, or may already be underway. The above data from Rosenberg Research shows that 11 out of the last 14 cycles of interest-rate hikes have resulted in a recession. Could this cycle see a rare soft-landing scenario that avoids a recession? Maybe. But the charts below suggest otherwise.
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