Rate Hike Seen by All Canada’s Big Six Banks on Strong Jobs Data

The country added 60,000 jobs, driven by gains in full-time work, while the unemployment rate rose to 5.4%, the highest since February 2022, Statistics Canada reported Friday in Ottawa. The figures blew past a 20,000 forecast gain, but missed expectations in a Bloomberg survey for a jobless rate of 5.3%.

“The data are probably just strong enough to see policymakers pull the trigger on another 25 basis-point interest rate hike next week, rather than wait until September as we had previously forecast,” CIBC economist Andrew Grantham said in a report to investors. The population grew 0.3% and the labor force rose 0.5%, while employment increased 0.3%. The participation rate increased 0.2 percentage points to 65.7%.

Trading in overnight swaps now show the odds of a July hike approaching 75%, from about two thirds before the Canadian jobs report.

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