China’s return is thought to be the final missing piece in the global air travel recovery. Domestic travel has led the rebound in Asia’s top aviation market, and now international travel is set to take off after the lifting of a ban on group tours to popular destinations.
While aviation fuel prices are nowhere near the highs of last year, they’ve jumped about 30% this month compared with the start of July, trading above $116 a barrel in Singapore, according to Bloomberg Fair Value data. A big question mark for the outlook on oil and the global economy has been China’s uneven recovery. While overall growth in the nation has been weaker than expected, various data on flight bookings are an encouraging sign.
A full recovery for Chinese international tourism won’t come overnight. After four years of harsh Covid restrictions, those looking to travel are facing high costs amid a weakening yuan, the sluggish economy and difficulty in getting travel documents such as visas.Also, the increase in demand comes as fuel supplies are stretched, leaving markets more vulnerable to diesel and jet fuel price shocks.
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