BofA Securities foreign exchange strategist Howard Du thinks recent weakness in the loonie is overdone,
“Short-term: August USD/CAD rally has overshot vs cross-asset factors and we expect the pair to normalize lower over the next month… Specifically, we see [USDCAD] decline to 1.33 [CAD$0.752] by the end of Q3 … The month-to-date broad USD rally has been aggressive, particularly vs the high-beta currencies in G10. For USDCAD, the pace of the rally from July 31 would rank at 94th percentile since 1999. The CAD has notably weakened despite higher crude oil price in the first half of August.
“At a high level, we prefer companies with stronger balance sheets and resilient margins which could protect free cash flow generation from oil price volatility. We believe the Canadian large-cap companies still provide value for investors given the pace of de[1]leveraging and capital allocation plans which will eventually shift all free cash flow towards shareholder returns.