Why bubble-era home mortgages are a disaster waiting to happen

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Delinquent loans still haunt the housing market, writes Keith Jurow.

Everett CollectionRemember all those sub-prime mortgages that blew up in 2007 and popped the housing bubble? The widely-held consensus is that millions of them were foreclosed as housing markets cratered. Since then, the remaining ones have been quietly disappearing as markets recovered.

In 2016, Fitch Ratings first published a spreadsheet showing what percentage of these loans had been delinquent for more than three-, four-, or five years. Here is an updated table showing the 10-worst states and how the number of deadbeat borrowers has soared. Another way to gauge the extent of the problem is to look at the major metros with the highest delinquency rate. Here is a table of the 10 metros with the worst delinquency rate in early 2016, taken from Black Box Logic's database.

Some of you may object that the delinquency data for the 10 worst metros is three years old. What if the situation has improved dramatically since then? Keep in mind that the delinquency rates for the 10 worst states in the first table cover the period through February 2018 and shows minimal improvement in only a few places. As for the table on the worst metros, I have found nothing so far to indicate that the delinquency rates have improved.

According to the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association , there are more than $800 billion of these bubble-era loans still outstanding as of the third quarter of 2018. If roughly 20% of them are seriously delinquent — many for five years or more — isn't that a cause for concern? Remember that the delinquency rate is much higher in many major metros.

By the middle of 2015, according to the database of BlackBox Logic, more than 40% of all outstanding California non-agency securitized loans had been modified. Four years earlier, that figure was only 17%. These were all seriously delinquent loans at the time of modification. I have no doubt that this percentage is higher than 40% now, perhaps as high as 50%.

 

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